I’d be very keen to see someone fully operationalize “A ~4 person-year research effort will find donation opportunities working on economic growth in LMICs which are substantially better than GiveWell’s top charities from a current generation human welfare-focused point of view” and put it on a prediction market like Metaculus.
I think (on not that much reflection) that I’d be inclined to bet at <50% odds on my idealized view of what this fully operationalized statement would be, though I concede that ideal objective resolution criteria may overly assume the randomista worldview
I’d be very keen to see someone fully operationalize “A ~4 person-year research effort will find donation opportunities working on economic growth in LMICs which are substantially better than GiveWell’s top charities from a current generation human welfare-focused point of view” and put it on a prediction market like Metaculus.
I think (on not that much reflection) that I’d be inclined to bet at <50% odds on my idealized view of what this fully operationalized statement would be, though I concede that ideal objective resolution criteria may overly assume the randomista worldview