Thanks for elaborating, Michael! Readers might want to check these BOTECs on the meat-eater problem.
These results suggest accounting for poultry does not matter much for GHD interventions. Among the countries targeted by GW’s top charities, the relative reduction in the cost-effectiveness of saving lives ranges from 0.0253 % for the Democratic Republic of Congo to 7.99 % for South Sudan.
Nevertheless, I believe the results above underestimate the reduction in cost-effectiveness, because:
I have not accounted for other farmed animals. From my estimates here, the negative utility of farmed chickens is only 30.6 % (= 1.42/​4.64) of that of all farmed animals globally. This suggests accounting for all farmed animals would lead to a reduction in cost-effectiveness for the mean country of 8.72 % (= 0.0267/​0.306), which is not negligible. So accounting for the effects of GHD interventions on farmed animals may lead to targeting different countries.
I have used the current consumption of poultry per capita, but this, as well as that of other farmed animals, will tend to increase with economic growth. I estimated the badness of the experiences of all farmed animals alive is 4.64 times the goodness of the experiences of all humans alive, which suggests saving a random human life results in a nearterm increase in suffering.
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All in all, I can see the impact on wild animals being anything from negligible to all that matters in the nearterm. So, as for farmed animals, I think more research is needed. For example, on forecasting net change in forest area in low-income countries.
I tend to agree with Michael that the meat-eater problem is currently not a major concern in low-income countries, but that it will tend to become so in the next few decades, such that I would not be surprised if saving lives increased net suffering. It is also worth noting that the people targeted by Open Phil’s new GHW areas[1] may have greater consumption per capita of farmed animals with bad lives relative to that in the countries targeted by GiveWell, such that the meat-eater problem is more problematic.
Personally, I also worry about the meat-eater problem in the context of global catastrophic risks. In my mind, if the catastrophe is sufficiently severe, saving humans will have a positive longterm effect which outweights the potential suffering inflicted to animals. However, for small catastrophes, I am open to arguments that saving humans has a negligible longterm effect, and may well increase net suffering due to greater consumption of farmed animals with bad lives linked to the saved humans.
Thanks for elaborating, Michael! Readers might want to check these BOTECs on the meat-eater problem.
I tend to agree with Michael that the meat-eater problem is currently not a major concern in low-income countries, but that it will tend to become so in the next few decades, such that I would not be surprised if saving lives increased net suffering. It is also worth noting that the people targeted by Open Phil’s new GHW areas[1] may have greater consumption per capita of farmed animals with bad lives relative to that in the countries targeted by GiveWell, such that the meat-eater problem is more problematic.
Personally, I also worry about the meat-eater problem in the context of global catastrophic risks. In my mind, if the catastrophe is sufficiently severe, saving humans will have a positive longterm effect which outweights the potential suffering inflicted to animals. However, for small catastrophes, I am open to arguments that saving humans has a negligible longterm effect, and may well increase net suffering due to greater consumption of farmed animals with bad lives linked to the saved humans.
South Asian air quality, global aid policy, innovation policy, global health R&D, and global public health policy.