Nope, not assuming neartermism. The report has the details. Short version: across a range of decision theories, chickens look really good.
That said, I totallyagree that from a purely conceptual perspective, we should “be more open-minded about how we should think of the different ‘buckets’ in a Worldview-Diversified portfolio, and cautious of completely dismissing common-sense priorities (even as we give significant weight and support to a range of theoretically well-supported counterintuitive cause areas).”
Edit to add: I think you might mean something different by “robust goodness” than what I had in mind. From a quick look at your link, you’re considering a range of different decision theories, risk-weightings, etc., and noting that chickens do at least moderately well on a wide range of theoretical assumptions.
I instead meant to be talking about empirical robustness: roughly, “helping the long-term via methods that are especially likely to do some immediate good, and with less risk of proving long-term counterproductive.” Or, more concisely, “longtermism via nearterm goods with positive ripple effects”. And then assessing what does best via this particular theoretical standard (to make up one bucket in our portfolio).
Since your report doesn’t consider ripple effects, it doesn’t address the kind of “robust longtermism” bucket I have in mind.
Nope, not assuming neartermism. The report has the details. Short version: across a range of decision theories, chickens look really good.
That said, I totally agree that from a purely conceptual perspective, we should “be more open-minded about how we should think of the different ‘buckets’ in a Worldview-Diversified portfolio, and cautious of completely dismissing common-sense priorities (even as we give significant weight and support to a range of theoretically well-supported counterintuitive cause areas).”
Ok, thanks for clarifying!
Edit to add: I think you might mean something different by “robust goodness” than what I had in mind. From a quick look at your link, you’re considering a range of different decision theories, risk-weightings, etc., and noting that chickens do at least moderately well on a wide range of theoretical assumptions.
I instead meant to be talking about empirical robustness: roughly, “helping the long-term via methods that are especially likely to do some immediate good, and with less risk of proving long-term counterproductive.” Or, more concisely, “longtermism via nearterm goods with positive ripple effects”. And then assessing what does best via this particular theoretical standard (to make up one bucket in our portfolio).
Since your report doesn’t consider ripple effects, it doesn’t address the kind of “robust longtermism” bucket I have in mind.