I asked Niel Bowerman, who did substantial work on climate change before and now works at 80000 Hours, for feedback. Here’s what he said:
1. I agree that climate change is a smaller contributor to x-risk than most other things that EAs focus on as x-risks.
2. What really matters is how much climate change increases other x-risks, e.g. how much does climate change increase x-risk due to great power war, etc.
3. Why are you defining GCRs as needing to be >10% probability. No-one really has any idea how likely these things are, and I haven’t seen a definition with that as part of it, so it seems like an odd addition which you only seem to have added in order to be able to make your point.
I asked Niel Bowerman, who did substantial work on climate change before and now works at 80000 Hours, for feedback. Here’s what he said: