I think when considering your estimates for 1. it is important to consider the boundaries given by those sources and to contextualise them.
The WHO is only looking at disease burden but even there they are expecting 250k to 2050 (not even looking to 2100) and they estimate that CC will exacerbate malnutrition by 3% of current values—this seems extremely conservative. They don’t seem to include the range increases for most other insect-transmitted diseases, just malaria, even within the extremely limited subset of causes they consider.
Impactlab’s “big data approach”—they don’t give their assumptions, parameters, or considerations—I think this should largely be discounted as a result. It seems to be based on historic and within-trend correlation data, not accounting for risk of any higher-level causes of mortality such as international conflicts, political destabilisation, famine, ecological collapse, climate migration, infrastructure damage etc. that will have an impact and I am guessing aren’t accounted for in their correlational databank.
Danny Bressler is only looking at extrapolating inter-personal conflicts. It doesn’t include famines, pandemics, increased disease burden, ecosystem collapse, great nation conflicts, etc. etc. etc. that are very likely to be much, much worse than the trends considered in his model. As such his 74 million estimate should be considered an extremely conservative lower bound to the estimated value. He is also showing a significant upwards trend per-year, so the burden should be considered to exacerbate over time.
Overall this seems to cast doubt on 1, 4 and 5. For 2. I have also critiqued John Halstead’s work in a previous post, and the Ozy Brennan post is refuting CC as an extinction risk, not as a global catastrophic risk as you use it. He is saying nothing about the chances of >10% likelihood of >10% population decrease. These combined should cause pause for thought when making statement 7.
I think while it’s some evidence that he considers his analysis still quite conservative, the most important contextualization of Danny Bresler’s analysis, for our very high-level purposes of understanding expert opinion as laymen, is that (iirc) he perceives it to be a new/contrarian position, where most estimates of climate change mortality burden is too low (from his perspective).
I also prefer the framing of things I hyperlink as “links I added that I thought might be helpful for helping to understanding the question further,” rather than “sources,” but I think that was my own fault for trying to write a short post at the possible expense of accuracy.
This doesn’t seem to be the context in which you were dropping the link, seeing as they all have top-level summary numbers that feed into your boundaries and point 1 doesn’t say anything about 2m/year being a lower bound, seeing as you are using it as the upper bound. I would like to see these other estimates of climate mortality as they aren’t referenced or seem to feed into point 1.
On a meta-level I think disconnecting sources with the context with which you are referencing them is very unfriendly to the reader as they have to wade through your links to find what you are saying where, but apparently these aren’t even sources for adding evidence to your claims. So I am further befuddled by your inclusion of incidental contextualising literature when you haven’t included references to substantiate your claims. I also think your edit comes across as quite uncharitable to readers (and self-defeating) if you don’t think you can change people’s minds.
I think when considering your estimates for 1. it is important to consider the boundaries given by those sources and to contextualise them.
The WHO is only looking at disease burden but even there they are expecting 250k to 2050 (not even looking to 2100) and they estimate that CC will exacerbate malnutrition by 3% of current values—this seems extremely conservative. They don’t seem to include the range increases for most other insect-transmitted diseases, just malaria, even within the extremely limited subset of causes they consider.
Impactlab’s “big data approach”—they don’t give their assumptions, parameters, or considerations—I think this should largely be discounted as a result. It seems to be based on historic and within-trend correlation data, not accounting for risk of any higher-level causes of mortality such as international conflicts, political destabilisation, famine, ecological collapse, climate migration, infrastructure damage etc. that will have an impact and I am guessing aren’t accounted for in their correlational databank.
Danny Bressler is only looking at extrapolating inter-personal conflicts. It doesn’t include famines, pandemics, increased disease burden, ecosystem collapse, great nation conflicts, etc. etc. etc. that are very likely to be much, much worse than the trends considered in his model. As such his 74 million estimate should be considered an extremely conservative lower bound to the estimated value. He is also showing a significant upwards trend per-year, so the burden should be considered to exacerbate over time.
Overall this seems to cast doubt on 1, 4 and 5. For 2. I have also critiqued John Halstead’s work in a previous post, and the Ozy Brennan post is refuting CC as an extinction risk, not as a global catastrophic risk as you use it. He is saying nothing about the chances of >10% likelihood of >10% population decrease. These combined should cause pause for thought when making statement 7.
I think while it’s some evidence that he considers his analysis still quite conservative, the most important contextualization of Danny Bresler’s analysis, for our very high-level purposes of understanding expert opinion as laymen, is that (iirc) he perceives it to be a new/contrarian position, where most estimates of climate change mortality burden is too low (from his perspective).
I also prefer the framing of things I hyperlink as “links I added that I thought might be helpful for helping to understanding the question further,” rather than “sources,” but I think that was my own fault for trying to write a short post at the possible expense of accuracy.
This doesn’t seem to be the context in which you were dropping the link, seeing as they all have top-level summary numbers that feed into your boundaries and point 1 doesn’t say anything about 2m/year being a lower bound, seeing as you are using it as the upper bound. I would like to see these other estimates of climate mortality as they aren’t referenced or seem to feed into point 1.
On a meta-level I think disconnecting sources with the context with which you are referencing them is very unfriendly to the reader as they have to wade through your links to find what you are saying where, but apparently these aren’t even sources for adding evidence to your claims. So I am further befuddled by your inclusion of incidental contextualising literature when you haven’t included references to substantiate your claims. I also think your edit comes across as quite uncharitable to readers (and self-defeating) if you don’t think you can change people’s minds.