The ranges given assume that Transformative Artificial Intelligence and other major transformative technologies are not invented by 2100. I actually personally think it’s more likely than not that other things will happen first, but a) none of the expert analysis I’ve read or skimmed assumed “crazy stuff” and b) so far I’m not aware of any prominent claims that climate change will be likely to be differentially more important in worlds with other major transformative technologies!
So unless explicitly stated otherwise, assume I’m using “likely” in a weird way to implicitly include “conditional on not the singularity.”
Weird caveat:
The ranges given assume that Transformative Artificial Intelligence and other major transformative technologies are not invented by 2100. I actually personally think it’s more likely than not that other things will happen first, but a) none of the expert analysis I’ve read or skimmed assumed “crazy stuff” and b) so far I’m not aware of any prominent claims that climate change will be likely to be differentially more important in worlds with other major transformative technologies!
So unless explicitly stated otherwise, assume I’m using “likely” in a weird way to implicitly include “conditional on not the singularity.”