As I write in my answer above, I think high-variance and volatile decisions are kinda just the name of the game when you are trying to make billions of dollars and change industries in a very-competitive world.
Agreed that Musk is “operating without the kinds of epistemic guardrails that EA leaders try to operate with”, and that it would be better if Musk was wiser. But it is always better if people were wiser, stronger versions of themselves! The problem is that people can’t always change their personalities very much, and furthermore it’s not always clear (from the inside) which direction of personality change would be an improvement. The problem of “choosing how epistemically modest I should be”, is itself a deep and unsettled question.
(Devil’s advocate perspective: maybe it’s not Musk that’s being too wild and volatile, but EAs who are being too timid and unambitious—trying to please everyone, fly under the radar, stay apolitical, etc! I don’t actually believe this 100%, but maybe 25%: Musk is more volatile than would be ideal, but EA is also more timid than would be ideal. So I don’t think we can easily say exactly how much more epistemically guard-railed Musk should ideally be, even if we in the EA movement had any influence over him, and even if he had the capability to change his personality that much.)
I agree that Musk should have more epistemic guardrails but also that EA should me more ambitious and not less timid, but more tactful. Trying to always please everyone, be apolitical and fly under the radar can constitute an extreme risk aversion, a risk in itself.
As I write in my answer above, I think high-variance and volatile decisions are kinda just the name of the game when you are trying to make billions of dollars and change industries in a very-competitive world.
Agreed that Musk is “operating without the kinds of epistemic guardrails that EA leaders try to operate with”, and that it would be better if Musk was wiser. But it is always better if people were wiser, stronger versions of themselves! The problem is that people can’t always change their personalities very much, and furthermore it’s not always clear (from the inside) which direction of personality change would be an improvement. The problem of “choosing how epistemically modest I should be”, is itself a deep and unsettled question.
(Devil’s advocate perspective: maybe it’s not Musk that’s being too wild and volatile, but EAs who are being too timid and unambitious—trying to please everyone, fly under the radar, stay apolitical, etc! I don’t actually believe this 100%, but maybe 25%: Musk is more volatile than would be ideal, but EA is also more timid than would be ideal. So I don’t think we can easily say exactly how much more epistemically guard-railed Musk should ideally be, even if we in the EA movement had any influence over him, and even if he had the capability to change his personality that much.)
I agree that Musk should have more epistemic guardrails but also that EA should me more ambitious and not less timid, but more tactful. Trying to always please everyone, be apolitical and fly under the radar can constitute an extreme risk aversion, a risk in itself.