When we work from a vision, we can measure progress against whether actions move us closer or farther from it, not whether a specific forecast proved to be correct. This enables continuous course correction without losing sense of purpose.
A very lucid view. The vision is constructed from what we know about our current conditions, so it is more realistic and tailored to our knowledge. Long-term predictions are often erroneous because they ignore logically unforeseeable circumstances (technological and cultural changes).
But we must not fall into the error of constructing a “vision” from entirely contemporary elements. We must know how to extract the essential and promising from the present. Current progressivism, for example, is based on a political model that is probably exhausted. Let us remember that Voltaire and Montesquieu advocated humanist development… but they could not foresee the structural political changes (universal suffrage, political human rights, etc.) that this would entail.
A very lucid view. The vision is constructed from what we know about our current conditions, so it is more realistic and tailored to our knowledge. Long-term predictions are often erroneous because they ignore logically unforeseeable circumstances (technological and cultural changes).
But we must not fall into the error of constructing a “vision” from entirely contemporary elements. We must know how to extract the essential and promising from the present. Current progressivism, for example, is based on a political model that is probably exhausted. Let us remember that Voltaire and Montesquieu advocated humanist development… but they could not foresee the structural political changes (universal suffrage, political human rights, etc.) that this would entail.