How EAs Can Embolden Employees (especially those close to Biden)
I think it’s getting to the point where people working for the Biden campaign and some of the high-level officials in the Biden administration should consider threatening to resign if he chooses to stay in the presidential race. Below is a rough brainstorm of a few actions the EA community could take to embolden those underlings of Biden, and many other underlings in organizations that are considering reckless action.
Note: I’m not a career planning expert, nor have I done much research at all into how effective these ideas are in inspiring people to take brave steps. Since there’s already so many other people pushing Biden to step down, it’s extremely unlikely that these actions make the difference in his decision. EAs close to Biden underlings would have to make sure the message from these acts actually reaches those in his orbit in order for them to have any effect. There’s also a chance that some of these ideas backfire. But given the enormous stakes in the election and the evidence that Biden has not been receptive to private pressure, I think these actions are worth considering. My guess is that these steps would have a very mild positive effect on the world in the long-run, but legitimizing resignation threats could create unnecessary turnover in various organizations that have a net-positive impact on the planet.
Action # 1: Publicly reward past brave stands
To incentivize staffers to speak up in the next couple of weeks, maybe some earn-to-give EAs with lots of followers on social media would want throw together a quick application for financial assistance meant for people who took a brave, thoughtful and high-impact stand at some point in their career. Taking a stand could mean resigning, threatening to resign, whistleblowing or speaking up in order to stop a potentially massive harmful action by their boss or organization. The funders would have to account for whether that was a wise course of action given what the applicant knew at the time (could be hard to verify in some cases). They would also need to account for how harmful the action turned out to be (or the best estimate of how harmful it would have been). In addition, they could consider each applicant’s financial and medical status. Too many people are so career-focused that they just dismiss speaking up or resigning in protest as out of the question. By helping people who they believe took a wise stand, these funders could perhaps inspire more courage from those around Biden, and other people in organizations who make destructive choices.
*Non-wealthy EAs with lots of followers could post a similar application and provide some public praise to the applicants who met similar criteria as above.
Action # 2: Send career resources
For friends of ours in the Biden campaign (or for any friend who is has justified moral qualms about their organization), I also think it could be worth a shot to send them resources on changing careers. These resources should be at least somewhat evidence-based and relevant to their potential career paths; I personally a big fan of the 80,000 hours career guide. I don’t think enough people consider enough options and are prone to catastrophize resigning in protest or even speaking up and risking getting fired.
Action # 3: Survey EA organizations on how they account for brave stands
It would be interesting if 80,000 hours conducted a survey among EA-aligned organizations about how they would judge an applicant who got knocked off their preferred career path by taking this kind of stand. The applicant could be free to articulate their general philosophy of maintaining confidentiality and not leaving a job suddenly. They could also specify why, under such extreme circumstances, they chose to make an exception. If they were in an impactful role, it would be interesting to see their estimates for how much good they were doing in that role versus how much good they could do by creating a news story that could inspire others and decrease the likelihood of their organization making a catastrophic mistake. This survey could be a jumping off point for EAs in hiring positions to think rigorously about how they judge applicants who did something brave.
Could you explain to me how you think Biden resigning would be positive?
Thanks for the question, Wyatt! I’m not saying he should necessarily resign right now. I think he’s been a good president. Based on his recent press conference, he is probably mentally able to make good decisions in the job. But I am pretty confident that him choosing not to run for reelection would significantly increase Democrats’ chances of beating Donald Trump. After digesting the analysis from polling experts like Nate Silver, Harry Enten, Dave Wasserman and the guys at Split Ticket as well as so many center-left opinion writers who I generally trust (e.g. Jonathan Chait, Ezra Klein, Matt Yglesias, Eric Levitz), I’m pretty certain about a few reasons that this is the case:
The vast majority of voters think Biden is too old to be President.
He is consistently underperforming Democratic Senate and House candidates in the polls.
Other potential presidential candidates (even Harris) are doing better in the polls than him once you account for name recognition.
Biden is currently trailing Trump, and he probably needs to win the national popular vote by at least two points in order to win.
Biden is less able to campaign hard and speak effectively in unscripted settings than all other potential nominees; these abilities are quite important to make up the polling gap.
I’m not going to rehash all the reasons I think giving Trump a second term is bad for the world. But just to name a few:
His economic policies (especially the tariffs, deficit-financed tax cuts which are too geared towards the wealthy, and immigration policies) would probably hurt GDP growth in the U.S. and across the world.
I think him being in office increases the chance of the U.S. becoming an authoritarian state.
I have more faith in a Democratic administration to prevent pandemics, effectively regulate AI and avoid nuclear war.
There’s an outside chance his administration tries ban lab-grown meat, like Republicans did in Florida.