Here are some cruxes that I don’t see addressed as much:
If there is a future with sentient beings living in it, are their lives, on average, likely to be net positive or net negative?
This weighs over all existential risk cause areas. If preventing existential risk is possible, but the future is net-negative, then this intervention may be harmful, due to increasing s-risks.
How much will the governance of developed countries influence the governance of underdeveloped countries?
A country that does not value net welfare at all but instead dominance and power can transfer its values to the rest of the world through popular media and economic dependency. If this happens, it could lead to a future where coordination on issues becomes difficult, if not impossible.
“Political Polarization and Gridlock is the biggest threat to steering humanity towards a good future.”