A quick glance at the comment section suggests that people are not unanimous about which consideration is most important. This is a sign that the disconnect between prediction market prices and probabilities hasn’t been given enough thought, i.e. that this post is prompting a useful discussion. Thank you for the contribution.
Must disagree. This—and several more issues due to real money—was well known to first generation prediction market operators since the middle of the 2000′s. Almost all of them went under, which why I was so surprised to see the 1st gen model pop up again with crypto starting with Augur.
A quick glance at the comment section suggests that people are not unanimous about which consideration is most important. This is a sign that the disconnect between prediction market prices and probabilities hasn’t been given enough thought, i.e. that this post is prompting a useful discussion. Thank you for the contribution.
Must disagree. This—and several more issues due to real money—was well known to first generation prediction market operators since the middle of the 2000′s. Almost all of them went under, which why I was so surprised to see the 1st gen model pop up again with crypto starting with Augur.