Also probably could get more traders if Manifold itself highlighted tournaments in a banner/sidebar/notification/email/etc. Expect the markets would not have all had less than 50 traders if more users knew thousands of additional USD were at stake: https://manifold.markets/CE?tab=markets https://manifold.markets/stats
The commenting prizes incentivized lots of great reasoning sharing rather than silent predictions, and I’m excited to hear which ideas are chosen
For forecasting prizes, requiring currencies benefits those who bet more over those who strictly forecast better. I borrowed hundreds of USD of Manifold’s currency to bet more on the tournament:
https://manifold.markets/group/ce-2023-top-ideas/leaderboards
whereas other tournaments are more strictly based on forecasting:
https://salemcenter.manifold.markets/
https://www.metaculus.com/tournaments/
Also probably could get more traders if Manifold itself highlighted tournaments in a banner/sidebar/notification/email/etc. Expect the markets would not have all had less than 50 traders if more users knew thousands of additional USD were at stake:
https://manifold.markets/CE?tab=markets
https://manifold.markets/stats
Thank you for the views and feedback!