Commenting prizes incentivized great reasoning sharing rather than silent predictions, and I’m excited to hear which ideas are chosenForecasting prizes requiring currencies benefits those who bet more over those who strictly forecast better. I borrowed hundreds of USD of Manifold’s currency to bet more on the tournament:https://​​manifold.markets/​​group/​​ce-2023-top-ideas/​​leaderboardswhereas other tournaments are more strictly based on forecasting:https://​​salemcenter.manifold.markets/​​https://​​www.metaculus.com/​​tournaments/​​Also could get more traders if Manifold highlighted tournaments in a banner/​sidebar/​notification/​email/​etc. Expect the markets would not have all had <50 traders if more users knew thousands of additional USD were at stake:https://​​manifold.markets/​​CE?tab=marketshttps://​​manifold.markets/​​stats
Thank you for the views and feedback!
Commenting prizes incentivized great reasoning sharing rather than silent predictions, and I’m excited to hear which ideas are chosen
Forecasting prizes requiring currencies benefits those who bet more over those who strictly forecast better. I borrowed hundreds of USD of Manifold’s currency to bet more on the tournament:
https://​​manifold.markets/​​group/​​ce-2023-top-ideas/​​leaderboards
whereas other tournaments are more strictly based on forecasting:
https://​​salemcenter.manifold.markets/​​
https://​​www.metaculus.com/​​tournaments/​​
Also could get more traders if Manifold highlighted tournaments in a banner/​sidebar/​notification/​email/​etc. Expect the markets would not have all had <50 traders if more users knew thousands of additional USD were at stake:
https://​​manifold.markets/​​CE?tab=markets
https://​​manifold.markets/​​stats
Thank you for the views and feedback!