easier to start and resolve markets, leading to many more markets
leads to lower signal-to-noise ratio
and heeding time-value still leads to more (play) capital /​ pricing power
Pat Myron 🔸
Karma: 618
long term market issues [...] conditional markets
Conditional markets compound long term issues (assuming they’re collateralized): instead of locking capital into a market, that’s locking capital into hoping there’s a market
Prediction markets can increase capital efficiency by:
* pegging interest rates (like adjustable-rate mortgages)
* recognizing hedged positions[1][2]
* lowering fees
More reasons for cautious interpretations:
Manifold:
* ’mana is purely a play-money and not exchangeable for sweepcash, money, or any other goods and items’
Polymarket:
* orderbook’s actually 2.5% which the interface rounds up to 3%
* Polymarket offers 4% variable interest on that (Kalshi went from 4.05% to 3.50% this year)
Metaculus:
* 500 deaths is closer to previous US standoffs than the US Civil War
* Only question of those >3% as of writing only has 33 forecasters
* All the histograms have odd tails (somewhat dampened by Metaculus reporting medians):
Most nonprofit revenue isn’t from charitable giving (think healthcare, education, etc):
https://​​taxfoundation.org/​​blog/​​501c3-nonprofit-revenue/​​
https://​​projects.propublica.org/​​nonprofits/​​searchMost American charitable giving was across hundreds of thousands of religious organizations:
https://​​www.philanthropyroundtable.org/​​magazine/​​less-god-less-giving/​​But these organizations receive the most donations:
https://​​forum.effectivealtruism.org/​​posts/​​BpEt8DqrcAhKJbtfJ/​​america-s-100-charities-receiving-most-donations
I do not discuss B12
I also plan to continue my D3 supplementation
Do you think there is evidence that not taking a multivitamin-multimineralThat multivitamin-multimineral contains B12 and D3 btw
Still seems reductively worded? Serious deficiencies like B12 impair sustaining any income. I wouldn’t risk cognitive health over ~$10/​month
Myopic calculating based on lifespan.. vitamins like B12, creatine, and omega-3 improve mental/​cognitive health, especially for vegans and vegetarians
Google Shopping, Amazon, and AliExpress do not seem to support even the most basic constraints
I agree with your frustrations around those sites, but more structured ecommerce sites seemingly exist: https://​​mcmaster.com. Perhaps more common/​​valued in B2B than B2C?
considered joining the team at Metaculus or Manifold Markets
@DPiepgrass furthering this recommendation with Kalshi/​Polymarket/​ForecastEx/​PredictIt/​etc. Real money prediction markets address your growth theory concerns
Easter (April 20th this year) is another unique opportunity:
Likely less defensiveness addressing annual egg decorating/​tossing/​hiding/​etc. than confronting daily diets
@VilleSokk created a similar calculator:
https://​​foodimpacts.org
https://​​forum.effectivealtruism.org/​​posts/​​KLqAiKpMpBCLCH6x7/​​ranking-animal-foods-based-on-suffering-and-ghg-emissions
FarmKind’s donation call-to-action is a great add; you all should link up :)
Offsetting has multiplier effects.. people constantly make significant sacrifices attempting to marginally improve their personal sustainability, so publicly offsetting decades worth of personal impact with a weeks’ earnings seems worth the statement
NB: I’d consider them regardless, but offsetting’s a solid nudge
Offset objections narrowly focus on future behavior; most people are raised omnivore; I’m offsetting past consumption:
@James-Hartree-Law @Mihkel Viires 🔹
Meal replacement bars like Soylent (or Huel) seem healthier+quicker+cheaper than eating out:
https://​​github.com/​​purarue/​​exobrain/​​commit/​​5c8fab00a8d0c585cd83f4cbb9d74bb23a1f4a9b#commitcomment-151936193
acting president [...] unelected official
While Musk is influential, it wasn’t clear you were talking about him until your reply
Checked the 8 links in the first section and they’ve all been archived on the publicly accessible Internet Archive for at least half a year. There’s also browser tooling to access those archives quicker
Agree the bottom comment is significantly more complex than reactions. The top 2 could be reactions
Reactions seemingly serve that purpose better:
https://​​forum.effectivealtruism.org/​​posts/​​oZff425xLnikfxeGD/​​pat-myron-s-shortform?commentId=HsadBx85nAggb8Q5T
As one of the largest single donations ever, Michael and Susan Dell pledged $6.25B to provide 25M American children new investment accounts:
https://​​apnews.com/​​article/​​michael-dell-susan-trump-accounts-stock-market-poverty-inequality-7e2615d50a3fc0563109ed0eeb4c41e1