The UK already has mechanisms to investigate the impact of proposed government policy, in this case the Office for Budget Responsibility which provides independent economic forecasts. The Chancellor and Prime Minister refused to allow the publication of these forecasts alongside the mini-budget that caused market turmoil. I’m not sure you can reasonably blame the quality of existing forecasting mechanisms when the relevant decision-makers were openly disregarding them.
John’s mechanism here is about getting better information for the PM; presumably she already saw the OBR report. Preventing publication doesn’t mean you didn’t pay attention.
There was no report, the OBR offered to update their forecasts to take account of the mini budget proposals but weren’t asked to. Even if there was a report though, and Truss/Kwarteng read it, the fact they didn’t publish it would indicate that it contradicts their course of action. That doesn’t support the idea that improved forecasting would’ve led to better decision making.
Thanks. This makes me less excited about prediction market advocacy.
I think it could still be a better time than average to advocate though. Announcing prediction markets could be a way for the next government to double down on good forecasting, and convince voters they won’t make the same mistake as the previous government.
The UK already has mechanisms to investigate the impact of proposed government policy, in this case the Office for Budget Responsibility which provides independent economic forecasts. The Chancellor and Prime Minister refused to allow the publication of these forecasts alongside the mini-budget that caused market turmoil. I’m not sure you can reasonably blame the quality of existing forecasting mechanisms when the relevant decision-makers were openly disregarding them.
John’s mechanism here is about getting better information for the PM; presumably she already saw the OBR report. Preventing publication doesn’t mean you didn’t pay attention.
There was no report, the OBR offered to update their forecasts to take account of the mini budget proposals but weren’t asked to. Even if there was a report though, and Truss/Kwarteng read it, the fact they didn’t publish it would indicate that it contradicts their course of action. That doesn’t support the idea that improved forecasting would’ve led to better decision making.
Fair enough, I didn’t realize the report didn’t exist!
Thanks. This makes me less excited about prediction market advocacy.
I think it could still be a better time than average to advocate though. Announcing prediction markets could be a way for the next government to double down on good forecasting, and convince voters they won’t make the same mistake as the previous government.