More generally, I am wary of using data in the past to predict a future, primarily because it breaks the IID distribution.
Most people self-select for very similar intelligence, often on the order of .85x-1.15x for 68% of humans (This is boosted by self selection.) 99.7% of all humans are in the range of .55x-1.45x in intelligence.
The IID assumption allows us to interpolate arbitrarily well, but once the assumption breaks, things turn bad fast.
More generally, I am wary of using data in the past to predict a future, primarily because it breaks the IID distribution.
Most people self-select for very similar intelligence, often on the order of .85x-1.15x for 68% of humans (This is boosted by self selection.) 99.7% of all humans are in the range of .55x-1.45x in intelligence.
The IID assumption allows us to interpolate arbitrarily well, but once the assumption breaks, things turn bad fast.