This is a great post and a fascinating history—has inspired me to create an account.
“So far, we’ve generated more than $30 bn for something like $200 mn, at a benefit:cost ratio of 150 to 1;[6]”
This I think is a weak chain in the argument. You may have raised $30bn for great causes, but how much of that would have gone to great or even good causes regardless?
Charities can often find fundraising to be profitable, but they are also normally taking resources from each other - (shifting donations from charity a to charity b) and so sometimes the net effect across the charitable economy is just spending more on seeking donations.
In EA case—would these people pledging to against malaria foundation really have spent the money on sports cars? Or even on ineffective opera house charities? I don’t think so. The kind of people motivated to seek out a good charity would still do so, but they would arguably do less effectively in the absence of an effective altruism movement guiding them.
I don’t disagree with the general thrust of the piece. But I think that throwaway 10x return claim on fundraising is perhaps dangerous.
The kind of people motivated to seek out a good charity would still do so, but they would arguably do less effectively in the absence of an effective altruism movement guiding them.
I think the question of what people would have done in the absence of EA movement building is really hard, but my impression is different here. Personally, without being surrounded by a group of people who view altruistic dedication as normal, I think a likely outcome would have been to increasingly prioritize myself and my family as I got older. That is a common pattern, with idealism and willingness to make sacrifices decreasing with age.
The excited/obligatory motivation perspective is also relevant here: without a movement I think you get many fewer excitement-motivated people working on altruistically valuable things.
The unstated claim is that the charities EAs are donating to now are significantly more effective than where people would have donated otherwise (assuming they would have donated at all).
If the gain in cost-effectiveness is (say) 10-fold, then the value of where the money would have been donated otherwise is only 10% of the value now generated. That would reduce the cost-effectiveness multiple from 10x to 9x.
I think a 10x average gain seems pretty plausible to me – though it’s a big question!
This is a great post and a fascinating history—has inspired me to create an account.
“So far, we’ve generated more than $30 bn for something like $200 mn, at a benefit:cost ratio of 150 to 1;[6]”
This I think is a weak chain in the argument. You may have raised $30bn for great causes, but how much of that would have gone to great or even good causes regardless?
Charities can often find fundraising to be profitable, but they are also normally taking resources from each other - (shifting donations from charity a to charity b) and so sometimes the net effect across the charitable economy is just spending more on seeking donations.
In EA case—would these people pledging to against malaria foundation really have spent the money on sports cars? Or even on ineffective opera house charities? I don’t think so. The kind of people motivated to seek out a good charity would still do so, but they would arguably do less effectively in the absence of an effective altruism movement guiding them.
I don’t disagree with the general thrust of the piece. But I think that throwaway 10x return claim on fundraising is perhaps dangerous.
I think the question of what people would have done in the absence of EA movement building is really hard, but my impression is different here. Personally, without being surrounded by a group of people who view altruistic dedication as normal, I think a likely outcome would have been to increasingly prioritize myself and my family as I got older. That is a common pattern, with idealism and willingness to make sacrifices decreasing with age.
The excited/obligatory motivation perspective is also relevant here: without a movement I think you get many fewer excitement-motivated people working on altruistically valuable things.
Agree it is hard to know. I think it’s a very good point that a movement/community can sustain dedication over time.
The unstated claim is that the charities EAs are donating to now are significantly more effective than where people would have donated otherwise (assuming they would have donated at all).
If the gain in cost-effectiveness is (say) 10-fold, then the value of where the money would have been donated otherwise is only 10% of the value now generated. That would reduce the cost-effectiveness multiple from 10x to 9x.
I think a 10x average gain seems pretty plausible to me – though it’s a big question!
Some of the reasoning is here, though this post is about careers rather than donations: https://80000hours.org/articles/careers-differ-in-impact/