There are other prospective major donors, too. Jaan Tallinn, the cofounder of Skype, is an active EA donor. At least one person earning to give (and not related to FTX) has a net worth of over a billion; a number of others are on track to give hundreds of millions in their lifetime. Among Giving Pledge signatories, there are around ten who are at least somewhat sympathetic to either effective altruism or longtermism. And there are a number of other successful entrepreneurs who take EA or longtermism seriously, and who could increase the total aligned funding by a lot. So, while FTX’s rapid growth is obviously unusual, it doesn’t seem like a several-orders-of-magnitude sort of fluke to me, and I think it would be a mistake to think of it as a ‘black swan’ sort of event, in terms of EA-aligned funding.
So the update I’ve made isn’t just about the level of funding we have, but also the growth rate.
As an aside, Joel Becker and I have an ongoing bet on whether or not there will be another EA who becomes a billionaire in the next 9-10 years, excluding crypto and inheritances (I’m for, he’s against).
As an aside, Joel Becker and I have an ongoing bet on whether or not there will be another EA who becomes a billionaire in the next 9-10 years, excluding crypto and inheritances (I’m for, he’s against).