I share your view that the criticism of seeming precision in EA is directionally correct, though attacking the cost-effectiveness of anti-malaria interventions sounds like it’s honing in on the least controversial predictions and strongest evidence base!
I’m less convinced the Shirky principle applies here. I don’t think clearing up ambiguous evidence for SMC would leave GiveWell or any other research org short of purpose, I think it would leave them in a position where they’d be able to get on with evaluating other causes, possibly with more foundation money headed their way to do so. For malaria specifically I also don’t think it’s possible to eliminate the uncertainty even with absurd research budgets, because background malaria prevalence and seasonal patterns vary so much by region and time (and are themselves endogenous with respect to prevention strategies used) so comparisons between areas require plugging assumptions into a model, and there will always be some areas where it has more or less effect.
I share your view that the criticism of seeming precision in EA is directionally correct, though attacking the cost-effectiveness of anti-malaria interventions sounds like it’s honing in on the least controversial predictions and strongest evidence base!
I’m less convinced the Shirky principle applies here. I don’t think clearing up ambiguous evidence for SMC would leave GiveWell or any other research org short of purpose, I think it would leave them in a position where they’d be able to get on with evaluating other causes, possibly with more foundation money headed their way to do so. For malaria specifically I also don’t think it’s possible to eliminate the uncertainty even with absurd research budgets, because background malaria prevalence and seasonal patterns vary so much by region and time (and are themselves endogenous with respect to prevention strategies used) so comparisons between areas require plugging assumptions into a model, and there will always be some areas where it has more or less effect.