Build up an institution that does the IGM economic experts survey with every scientific field, with paid editors, additionally probabilistic forecasts, monetary incentives for the experts maybe.
https://www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel/
I like this idea in general, but would it ever really be able to employ $100m+ annually? For comparison, GiveWell spends about $6 million/year and CSET was set up for $55m/5 years (11m/year)
I think you’re right. Even if the experts were paid really well for their participation, say 10k per year (maybe as a fixed sum or in expectation given some incentive scheme), and you might have on the order of 50 experts each for 20(?) fields, then you end up with 10 million per year. But probably it wouldn’t even require that, as long as it’s prestigious and is set up well with enough buy-in. Paying for their judgement would make the latter easier I suppose.
I think the gist of this idea might be something like a massively-scaled up prediction platform that focuses on recruiting subject-matter experts and pays them to make predictions on questions relevant to their expertise while perhaps additionally discussing important/neglected trends in their fields.
Build up an institution that does the IGM economic experts survey with every scientific field, with paid editors, additionally probabilistic forecasts, monetary incentives for the experts maybe. https://www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel/
I like this idea in general, but would it ever really be able to employ $100m+ annually? For comparison, GiveWell spends about $6 million/year and CSET was set up for $55m/5 years (11m/year)
I think you’re right. Even if the experts were paid really well for their participation, say 10k per year (maybe as a fixed sum or in expectation given some incentive scheme), and you might have on the order of 50 experts each for 20(?) fields, then you end up with 10 million per year. But probably it wouldn’t even require that, as long as it’s prestigious and is set up well with enough buy-in. Paying for their judgement would make the latter easier I suppose.
I would upvote if someone wrote a quick summary of this and a number of the other ideas which aren’t immediately clear on first reading.
I think the gist of this idea might be something like a massively-scaled up prediction platform that focuses on recruiting subject-matter experts and pays them to make predictions on questions relevant to their expertise while perhaps additionally discussing important/neglected trends in their fields.