Out of all the ideas, this seems the most shovel-ready.
MacArthur will (presumably) be letting go of some staff who do nuclear policy work, and would (presumably) be happy to share the organisations they’ve granted to in the past. So you have a ready-made research staff list + grant list.
All (“all” :) ) you need is a foundation and a team to execute on it. Seems like $100 million could actually be deployed pretty rapidly.
Possibly not all of that money would meet EA standards of cost-effectiveness though—indeed MacArthur’s withdrawal provides some evidence that it isn’t cost effective (if we trust their judgement).
Out of all the ideas, this seems the most shovel-ready.
MacArthur will (presumably) be letting go of some staff who do nuclear policy work, and would (presumably) be happy to share the organisations they’ve granted to in the past. So you have a ready-made research staff list + grant list.
All (“all” :) ) you need is a foundation and a team to execute on it. Seems like $100 million could actually be deployed pretty rapidly.
Possibly not all of that money would meet EA standards of cost-effectiveness though—indeed MacArthur’s withdrawal provides some evidence that it isn’t cost effective (if we trust their judgement).
Here’s the interesting, frustrating evaluation report: https://www.macfound.org/media/article_pdfs/nuclear-challenges-synthesis-report_public-final-1.29.21.pdf[16].pdf
Looks to me like a classic hits-based giving bet—you mostly don’t make much impact, then occassionaly (Nixon arms control, H.W. Bush’s START and Nunn-Lugar, maybe Obama JCPOA/New START) get a home run.