I sort of interpret that post as typical EA scrupulosity. They write:
Overall, the more suspect the estimates, the less you should update on the results and the more weight you should put on your prior.
But I didn’t really have a strong prior to begin with. Maybe the hire’s salary, but that’s really just the lower bound.
I sort of interpret that post as typical EA scrupulosity. They write:
But I didn’t really have a strong prior to begin with. Maybe the hire’s salary, but that’s really just the lower bound.