I don’t see how your two counterarguments are arguments against a longtermist framing. Rather they seem to be arguments against the benefits of economic growth if one has accepted a longtermist framing (maybe this is what you meant?). If you’re saying the benefits of economic growth don’t stretch into the long-term then that acts against economic growth, although for the record I’m not convinced on the truth of claim (1).
I ran a quick regression of the developed countries in Easterlin’s dataset, and the coefficient on GDP growth actually increases. This implies that an income doubling actually matters more in rich countries today than it does for poorer countries.
How long can this continue? That’s what I wonder. When we’re all rich enough to have a pretty nice set of material possessions, is more growth going to continue to boost our happiness? Certainly in my own life I don’t want more material goods—I want better relationships and more meaning. Also there have been criticisms of using SWB data in low-income settings—see my comment here.
Lastly, I share the intuition that we should not worry as much about happiness as existential security. This may be another argument against thinking too much about stimulating the kind of growth that would compound into the long-term. That kind of growth would likely be frontier growth, potentially increasing existential risk as we develop new technologies.
For the record, some have argued that technological progress and economic growth can lower existential risk. This is because we can develop technologies that can allow us to reduce risks, as well as becoming richer making us more concerned with safety. See here and also Will MacAskill’s new book What We Owe the Future which discusses the risks of stagnation.
Yep, you are correct about what I meant by a longtermist framing. I meant to say that arguing for economic growth based on its long term effects is a little controversial. I am only 60% certain that economic growth is good after 40 years in the future, but I am more like 80% certain that it’s good in the 40 year time-frame.
On how long can wealthy countries continue to benefit from growth:
Looking at individual life satisfaction data, it looks like income doublings may continue to steadily increase life satisfaction at incomes that are at least 8x today’s United States median income. Considering that median wages in developed countries have been growing pretty slowly the past few decades, it seems likely that we have another few centuries of growth in the richest countries before we have to start worrying about reaching a limit.
More speculatively, I am also not sure that we ever have to reach a limit. It seems like there should be biological limits to how happy you can feel in the moment, but it might be possible to be 10x as satisfied with your life as you are right now. I agree with you that relationships and meaning are more likely to get you there than material goods. But richer people in the US seem to participate in communities more and have better relationships, and I believe people in richer countries broadly have more close relationships than people in poorer ones.
On frontier growth lowering existential risk:
I definitely think it’s plausible. But technological progress so far has only seemed to consistently increase existential risk. I think there is a large burden of proof on the claim that going forward things will be different. I think the EA community should be especially suspicious of such claims considering how much we discuss mechanisms of how further developments in synthetic biology or AI could pose an existential risk.
I don’t see how your two counterarguments are arguments against a longtermist framing. Rather they seem to be arguments against the benefits of economic growth if one has accepted a longtermist framing (maybe this is what you meant?). If you’re saying the benefits of economic growth don’t stretch into the long-term then that acts against economic growth, although for the record I’m not convinced on the truth of claim (1).
How long can this continue? That’s what I wonder. When we’re all rich enough to have a pretty nice set of material possessions, is more growth going to continue to boost our happiness? Certainly in my own life I don’t want more material goods—I want better relationships and more meaning. Also there have been criticisms of using SWB data in low-income settings—see my comment here.
For the record, some have argued that technological progress and economic growth can lower existential risk. This is because we can develop technologies that can allow us to reduce risks, as well as becoming richer making us more concerned with safety. See here and also Will MacAskill’s new book What We Owe the Future which discusses the risks of stagnation.
Yep, you are correct about what I meant by a longtermist framing. I meant to say that arguing for economic growth based on its long term effects is a little controversial. I am only 60% certain that economic growth is good after 40 years in the future, but I am more like 80% certain that it’s good in the 40 year time-frame.
On how long can wealthy countries continue to benefit from growth: Looking at individual life satisfaction data, it looks like income doublings may continue to steadily increase life satisfaction at incomes that are at least 8x today’s United States median income. Considering that median wages in developed countries have been growing pretty slowly the past few decades, it seems likely that we have another few centuries of growth in the richest countries before we have to start worrying about reaching a limit. More speculatively, I am also not sure that we ever have to reach a limit. It seems like there should be biological limits to how happy you can feel in the moment, but it might be possible to be 10x as satisfied with your life as you are right now. I agree with you that relationships and meaning are more likely to get you there than material goods. But richer people in the US seem to participate in communities more and have better relationships, and I believe people in richer countries broadly have more close relationships than people in poorer ones.
On frontier growth lowering existential risk: I definitely think it’s plausible. But technological progress so far has only seemed to consistently increase existential risk. I think there is a large burden of proof on the claim that going forward things will be different. I think the EA community should be especially suspicious of such claims considering how much we discuss mechanisms of how further developments in synthetic biology or AI could pose an existential risk.