Yep, you are correct about what I meant by a longtermist framing. I meant to say that arguing for economic growth based on its long term effects is a little controversial. I am only 60% certain that economic growth is good after 40 years in the future, but I am more like 80% certain that it’s good in the 40 year time-frame.
On how long can wealthy countries continue to benefit from growth:
Looking at individual life satisfaction data, it looks like income doublings may continue to steadily increase life satisfaction at incomes that are at least 8x today’s United States median income. Considering that median wages in developed countries have been growing pretty slowly the past few decades, it seems likely that we have another few centuries of growth in the richest countries before we have to start worrying about reaching a limit.
More speculatively, I am also not sure that we ever have to reach a limit. It seems like there should be biological limits to how happy you can feel in the moment, but it might be possible to be 10x as satisfied with your life as you are right now. I agree with you that relationships and meaning are more likely to get you there than material goods. But richer people in the US seem to participate in communities more and have better relationships, and I believe people in richer countries broadly have more close relationships than people in poorer ones.
On frontier growth lowering existential risk:
I definitely think it’s plausible. But technological progress so far has only seemed to consistently increase existential risk. I think there is a large burden of proof on the claim that going forward things will be different. I think the EA community should be especially suspicious of such claims considering how much we discuss mechanisms of how further developments in synthetic biology or AI could pose an existential risk.
Yep, you are correct about what I meant by a longtermist framing. I meant to say that arguing for economic growth based on its long term effects is a little controversial. I am only 60% certain that economic growth is good after 40 years in the future, but I am more like 80% certain that it’s good in the 40 year time-frame.
On how long can wealthy countries continue to benefit from growth: Looking at individual life satisfaction data, it looks like income doublings may continue to steadily increase life satisfaction at incomes that are at least 8x today’s United States median income. Considering that median wages in developed countries have been growing pretty slowly the past few decades, it seems likely that we have another few centuries of growth in the richest countries before we have to start worrying about reaching a limit. More speculatively, I am also not sure that we ever have to reach a limit. It seems like there should be biological limits to how happy you can feel in the moment, but it might be possible to be 10x as satisfied with your life as you are right now. I agree with you that relationships and meaning are more likely to get you there than material goods. But richer people in the US seem to participate in communities more and have better relationships, and I believe people in richer countries broadly have more close relationships than people in poorer ones.
On frontier growth lowering existential risk: I definitely think it’s plausible. But technological progress so far has only seemed to consistently increase existential risk. I think there is a large burden of proof on the claim that going forward things will be different. I think the EA community should be especially suspicious of such claims considering how much we discuss mechanisms of how further developments in synthetic biology or AI could pose an existential risk.