Thanks for the reply and sorry for the long delay! I decided to dive in and write a post about it.
I check when using distributions is much better than point-estimates: it’s when the ratio between upper/lower confidence bounds is high—in situations of high uncertainty like the probability-of-life example you mentioned.
I test your intuition that using lognormal is usually better than normal (and end up agreeing with you)
I check whether the lognormal distribution can be used to find a more reliable mean of two point estimates, but conclude that it’s no good
Thanks for the reply and sorry for the long delay! I decided to dive in and write a post about it.
I check when using distributions is much better than point-estimates: it’s when the ratio between upper/lower confidence bounds is high—in situations of high uncertainty like the probability-of-life example you mentioned.
I test your intuition that using lognormal is usually better than normal (and end up agreeing with you)
I check whether the lognormal distribution can be used to find a more reliable mean of two point estimates, but conclude that it’s no good
Thanks!