Do you think that forecasting like this will hurt the information landscape on average?
I’m a big fan of the development e.g. QRI’s process of making tools that make it increasingly easy to translate natural thoughts into more usable forms. In my dream world, if you told me your beliefs it would be in the form of a set of distributions that I could run a monte carlo sim on, having potentially substituted my own opinions if I felt differently confident than you (and maybe beyond that there’s still neater ways of unpacking my credences that even better tools could reveal).
Absent that, I’m a fan of forecasting, but I worry that overnormalising the naive I-say-a-number-and-you-have-no-idea-how-I-reached-it-or-how-confident-I-am-in-it form of it might get in the way of developing it into something better.
I dunno, I think that sounds galaxy-brained to me. I think that giving numbers is better than not giving them and that thinking carefully about the numbers is better than that. I don’t really buy your second order concerns (or think they could easily go in the opposite direction)
Ah, sorry, I misunderstood that as criticism.
I’m a big fan of the development e.g. QRI’s process of making tools that make it increasingly easy to translate natural thoughts into more usable forms. In my dream world, if you told me your beliefs it would be in the form of a set of distributions that I could run a monte carlo sim on, having potentially substituted my own opinions if I felt differently confident than you (and maybe beyond that there’s still neater ways of unpacking my credences that even better tools could reveal).
Absent that, I’m a fan of forecasting, but I worry that overnormalising the naive I-say-a-number-and-you-have-no-idea-how-I-reached-it-or-how-confident-I-am-in-it form of it might get in the way of developing it into something better.
I dunno, I think that sounds galaxy-brained to me. I think that giving numbers is better than not giving them and that thinking carefully about the numbers is better than that. I don’t really buy your second order concerns (or think they could easily go in the opposite direction)