That means that we can’t conclude afterwords whether the intervention worked. Instead, we need theories of change, and surveys of corruption, and second order estimates of the impact based on that. In short, we won’t find out if our work helped.
This seems too strong. We can’t conclude with certainty whether the intervention worked, and we won’t find out with certainty if our work helped. But we will have some information.
Agreed—but as the link I included argues, the information we have is swamped by our priors, and isn’t particularly useful for making objective conclusions
This seems too strong. We can’t conclude with certainty whether the intervention worked, and we won’t find out with certainty if our work helped. But we will have some information.
Agreed—but as the link I included argues, the information we have is swamped by our priors, and isn’t particularly useful for making objective conclusions