As a relatively newcomer to EA, Alvea’s story looks like a case study in the gap between ex-ante impact models and ex-post realities. The equations i asked in my previous post Am I Missing Something, or Is EA? Thoughts from a Learner in Uganda. The initial expected value hinged on speed to clinic and variant responsiveness, but external constraints (funding climate, regulatory shifts, market entry bottlenecks) and internal fragilities (governance, premature scaling, strategy debt) reshaped the trajectory. And just to say it may not be far away from this post When the impact model says “Lie” but morality says wait.
From an EA lens, what stands out is the counterfactual value created despite program failure: rapid Phase I execution as proof of concept, talent upskilling, and knowledge spillover into biosecurity. These may end up dominating the direct impact pathway. The update I take is that we should model ambitious projects not just for their primary EV, but also for their “option value” in producing capabilities, networks, and human capital that persist even if the mainline plan collapses.
I am eagerly waiting to learn a lot from the EA in-depth program.
As a relatively newcomer to EA, Alvea’s story looks like a case study in the gap between ex-ante impact models and ex-post realities. The equations i asked in my previous post Am I Missing Something, or Is EA? Thoughts from a Learner in Uganda. The initial expected value hinged on speed to clinic and variant responsiveness, but external constraints (funding climate, regulatory shifts, market entry bottlenecks) and internal fragilities (governance, premature scaling, strategy debt) reshaped the trajectory. And just to say it may not be far away from this post When the impact model says “Lie” but morality says wait.
From an EA lens, what stands out is the counterfactual value created despite program failure: rapid Phase I execution as proof of concept, talent upskilling, and knowledge spillover into biosecurity. These may end up dominating the direct impact pathway. The update I take is that we should model ambitious projects not just for their primary EV, but also for their “option value” in producing capabilities, networks, and human capital that persist even if the mainline plan collapses.
I am eagerly waiting to learn a lot from the EA in-depth program.