The more weight we place on this goal, probably the less we’d focus on very unlikely but very extreme scenarios (since badness scales roughly linearly in fatality numbers for neartermists, whereas for longtermists I think there’s a larger gap in badness between smaller- and medium-scale and extremely-large-scale nuclear scenarios).
This seems right. Here are my attempts at neartermist analysis for nuclear risks (global and US focused).
This seems right. Here are my attempts at neartermist analysis for nuclear risks (global and US focused).