Finally, I think you acknowledge but probably underweight the importance of giving more weight to recent performance. For many organisations, the ‘revenue curve’ of donations will start out low but then grow rapidly. So the relevant thing for me is the direction of travel of Ayuda Efectiva, not its performance as an average of its first three years. You can see the value of looking at the direction of travel if you look at the performance of Effektiv Spenden and, to some extent, Giving What We Can (although GWWC had significant ‘unfair advantages’ in its early years). In each case, their performance has improved substantially over time.
So the relevant thing for me is the direction of travel of Ayuda Efectiva, not its performance as an average of its first three years.
Note the factual non-marginal multipliers I present for the whole period (e.g. 2019 to 2021 for Ayuda Efectiva) are not the mean across the factual non-marginal multipliers for the years of that period. I calculate the factual non-marginal multiplier for a given period from the ratio between donations received to be directed towards effective organisations and costs, so the years with greater volume of donations and costs will have a larger weight. This explains why Ayuda Efectiva’s multiplier for 2019 to 2021 (1.34) is not too different from that for 2021 (1.72).
It would be nice if effective giving organisations forecasted their future costs, donations received, and multipliers, thus doing a prospective cost-effectiveness analysis.
Finally, I think you acknowledge but probably underweight the importance of giving more weight to recent performance. For many organisations, the ‘revenue curve’ of donations will start out low but then grow rapidly. So the relevant thing for me is the direction of travel of Ayuda Efectiva, not its performance as an average of its first three years. You can see the value of looking at the direction of travel if you look at the performance of Effektiv Spenden and, to some extent, Giving What We Can (although GWWC had significant ‘unfair advantages’ in its early years). In each case, their performance has improved substantially over time.
Thanks for noting that, Jack!
Note the factual non-marginal multipliers I present for the whole period (e.g. 2019 to 2021 for Ayuda Efectiva) are not the mean across the factual non-marginal multipliers for the years of that period. I calculate the factual non-marginal multiplier for a given period from the ratio between donations received to be directed towards effective organisations and costs, so the years with greater volume of donations and costs will have a larger weight. This explains why Ayuda Efectiva’s multiplier for 2019 to 2021 (1.34) is not too different from that for 2021 (1.72).
It would be nice if effective giving organisations forecasted their future costs, donations received, and multipliers, thus doing a prospective cost-effectiveness analysis.