So the relevant thing for me is the direction of travel of Ayuda Efectiva, not its performance as an average of its first three years.
Note the factual non-marginal multipliers I present for the whole period (e.g. 2019 to 2021 for Ayuda Efectiva) are not the mean across the factual non-marginal multipliers for the years of that period. I calculate the factual non-marginal multiplier for a given period from the ratio between donations received to be directed towards effective organisations and costs, so the years with greater volume of donations and costs will have a larger weight. This explains why Ayuda Efectiva’s multiplier for 2019 to 2021 (1.34) is not too different from that for 2021 (1.72).
It would be nice if effective giving organisations forecasted their future costs, donations received, and multipliers, thus doing a prospective cost-effectiveness analysis.
Thanks for noting that, Jack!
Note the factual non-marginal multipliers I present for the whole period (e.g. 2019 to 2021 for Ayuda Efectiva) are not the mean across the factual non-marginal multipliers for the years of that period. I calculate the factual non-marginal multiplier for a given period from the ratio between donations received to be directed towards effective organisations and costs, so the years with greater volume of donations and costs will have a larger weight. This explains why Ayuda Efectiva’s multiplier for 2019 to 2021 (1.34) is not too different from that for 2021 (1.72).
It would be nice if effective giving organisations forecasted their future costs, donations received, and multipliers, thus doing a prospective cost-effectiveness analysis.