If I’m willing to bet, I need to take “edge”. I am not going to bet at my actual odds since that gives no profit for me.
1⁄2. I think nearly every president committed crimes, for example, war crimes. This mainly depends on what he is prosecuted for as opposed to what is committed.
If the constitution is amended that seems fine. I’m fine to bet on something like this though.
I’m not sure why that matters. People can elect people you and I disagree with ideologically.
I don’t think I understand this one. Can you clarify?
I feel like people are converting their dislike of Trump into unwarranted fears. I don’t like Trump but it’s not helpful to fear monger.
This is pretty patronizing. You don’t know me but do you really think the average person on the EA forum needs that explained?
hence why I wrote 1⁄20 (95-5). If you believe the chance is <1/100 you are 10x. Given the asymmetry of my/other users knowledge of your internal probability, I understand offering the best possible odds for yourself that you still think the other side would take, but it’s a bit of an icky norm to come on here and play poker when people might assume you would be happy to take a 2x-5x bet. More importantly the bet you offered proves nothing in my mind since anywhere between a 1-5% chance of the next election being rigged would still be really really bad and worth hyperventilating about.
If you want, read my comment to lark. I don’t think my resolution criteria are good. It’s rather that I don’t personally expect the next election to be rigged ( I would be on the same side of the 90⁄10 bet as you) but I do expect trump to continue to denigrate the checks and balances that we have in this country, whether it be official laws or unofficial norms, hence why I am trying to pose intermediate questions. I’ll try to improve the original questions though.
1⁄2 - just specify a specific crime that we think most presidents don’t commit and would obviously be worth prosecuting.
3 - really? You think this wouldn’t be a clear step towards autocracy?
4 - The general position of MAGA’s is that the 2020 election was stolen. 5- Admittedly a Pretty awful market, just ignore this one
Again I don’t think even these modified versions are good, but I think we can still do better.
If I’m willing to bet, I need to take “edge”. I am not going to bet at my actual odds since that gives no profit for me.
1⁄2. I think nearly every president committed crimes, for example, war crimes. This mainly depends on what he is prosecuted for as opposed to what is committed.
If the constitution is amended that seems fine. I’m fine to bet on something like this though.
I’m not sure why that matters. People can elect people you and I disagree with ideologically.
I don’t think I understand this one. Can you clarify?
I feel like people are converting their dislike of Trump into unwarranted fears. I don’t like Trump but it’s not helpful to fear monger.
This is pretty patronizing. You don’t know me but do you really think the average person on the EA forum needs that explained?
hence why I wrote 1⁄20 (95-5). If you believe the chance is <1/100 you are 10x. Given the asymmetry of my/other users knowledge of your internal probability, I understand offering the best possible odds for yourself that you still think the other side would take, but it’s a bit of an icky norm to come on here and play poker when people might assume you would be happy to take a 2x-5x bet. More importantly the bet you offered proves nothing in my mind since anywhere between a 1-5% chance of the next election being rigged would still be really really bad and worth hyperventilating about.
If you want, read my comment to lark. I don’t think my resolution criteria are good. It’s rather that I don’t personally expect the next election to be rigged ( I would be on the same side of the 90⁄10 bet as you) but I do expect trump to continue to denigrate the checks and balances that we have in this country, whether it be official laws or unofficial norms, hence why I am trying to pose intermediate questions. I’ll try to improve the original questions though.
1⁄2 - just specify a specific crime that we think most presidents don’t commit and would obviously be worth prosecuting.
3 - really? You think this wouldn’t be a clear step towards autocracy?
4 - The general position of MAGA’s is that the 2020 election was stolen.
5- Admittedly a Pretty awful market, just ignore this one
Again I don’t think even these modified versions are good, but I think we can still do better.