I really like your questions! If you’re open to creating more, I’d suggest creating another (seven) question(s) on the average yearly amount of money granted from 2025-2030 (overall and for each of the six focus areas), since the yearly variance is significant.
This is a good idea—I considered making the original questions averages for this reason, but erred on this side of making the question simpler. As is, I think the variance around the underlying distribution outcomes is large enough to compensate for the variance in year to year grants, such that I would not expect a big difference between 2028-2032 average predictions and 2030 predictions, and I’m hesitant to ask too many questions until the current ones have received sufficient attention.
I strongly dislike the idea of having tons more predictions—it increases effort both for people looking up forecasts, and for forecasters.Forecasting effort is a commons, in the economic sense—forecaster effort is limited, and overuse of forecasts is effectively diluting the available forecaster resources among more questions.
That’s a good point I didn’t consider. I think you’re right that the average question would not be very helpful, and not helpful enough to be worth adding.