Open Phil obviously has more information on this than members of the general public. Do we know whether Open Phil is willing to share any of its internal forecasts on this (or internal knowledge that could be used to create such forecasts) publicly?
If so, several people at Open Phil are on Metaculus, and can write comments—but I’m skeptical that they will, or that they have very concrete ideas about what they will be doing—I think the plan is essentially to fund everything that seems very promising, and keep looking for more very promising things.
Open Phil obviously has more information on this than members of the general public. Do we know whether Open Phil is willing to share any of its internal forecasts on this (or internal knowledge that could be used to create such forecasts) publicly?
If so, several people at Open Phil are on Metaculus, and can write comments—but I’m skeptical that they will, or that they have very concrete ideas about what they will be doing—I think the plan is essentially to fund everything that seems very promising, and keep looking for more very promising things.