This a really useful set of thoughts and further readings, thanks for sharing Seth. I especially liked your points on policy windows, and on cross-fertilisation between the nuclear and GCR fields.
Shared the Twitter thread below on Feb 28, crossposting as similar reflections:
A few thoughts on global catastrophic risk a few days into Putin’s invasion—would be very interested in other’s reflections!
Nukes. Still the most urgent risk. Probably the most dangerous situation since 1983? Crucial to avoid misperceptions/mistakes
Networks. War is having ripple effects on grain/Lebanon, on air freight, obviously finance. Highlights importance of Classifying GCR (Avin et al) type work—eg on volcanoes (Mani et al)
Norms matter. ‘No wars of conquest’ does really seem to have held back great powers, and states willing to spend a lot to uphold that norm -EU a more consequential actor than many may have thought—Russia may be less important going forward if its high-tech industry craters
Great power tension/conflict and authoritarianism increase our GCR exposure (Liu et al) / are very important risk factors (Ord)
We should take risk-superior moves (Wiener) - moving to nuclear power and renewables important for both climate change and for reducing the above risk factors, etc
This a really useful set of thoughts and further readings, thanks for sharing Seth. I especially liked your points on policy windows, and on cross-fertilisation between the nuclear and GCR fields.
Shared the Twitter thread below on Feb 28, crossposting as similar reflections:
A few thoughts on global catastrophic risk a few days into Putin’s invasion—would be very interested in other’s reflections!
Nukes. Still the most urgent risk. Probably the most dangerous situation since 1983? Crucial to avoid misperceptions/mistakes
Networks. War is having ripple effects on grain/Lebanon, on air freight, obviously finance. Highlights importance of Classifying GCR (Avin et al) type work—eg on volcanoes (Mani et al)
Classifying global catastrophic risks
Paper: Global catastrophic risk from lower magnitude volcanic eruptions
Norms matter. ‘No wars of conquest’ does really seem to have held back great powers, and states willing to spend a lot to uphold that norm -EU a more consequential actor than many may have thought—Russia may be less important going forward if its high-tech industry craters
Great power tension/conflict and authoritarianism increase our GCR exposure (Liu et al) / are very important risk factors (Ord)
https://theprecipice.com
Governing Boring Apocalypses: A new typology of existential vulnerabilities and exposures for...
We should take risk-superior moves (Wiener) - moving to nuclear power and renewables important for both climate change and for reducing the above risk factors, etc
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/risa.13629…