Hey Joel, thanks for the writeup, super insightful!
“the monetary value of an average GWWC pledge as 146 DALYs averted per pledge (equivalent to USD 20,000 in GiveWell donations)”
Is that $20K USD comparable to GWWC’s headline figure of $100K USD per 10% pledge, or some other headline metric?
I note two interesting datapoints versus GWWC’s figures:
16 year lifespan vs GWWC’s 35.1 ← Less than half of GWWC’s lifespan?
35% counterfactuality adjustment versus GWWC’s 33% ← Only +2% uplift versus the Western context?
Not sure how the above parses with this paragraph: “On the positive side, Asian pledgers are counterfactually less likely to do effective giving, and give for a greater number of years.”
(1) The 100k figure from GWWC is unadjusted; once you apply the per annum discounts, GWWC estimates a pledge to be worth USD 15k. So CEARCH’s estimate is higher, but not by much.
(2) Similarly, GWWC’s 35.1 is unadjusted; in comparison, when we report a 16 year giving lifespan, that adjusting for various temporal discounts (e.g. attrition amongst pledgers).
(3) The 0.35 counterfactual adjustment (and all the estimates from that bulletpoint list) are for the global average / predominantly western pledger. The Asia-specific estimates are different; we don’t go into detail here, but we expect the counterfactual coefficient for Asian pledgers to be 0.62, or almost twice as much.
Hey Joel, thanks for the writeup, super insightful!
“the monetary value of an average GWWC pledge as 146 DALYs averted per pledge (equivalent to USD 20,000 in GiveWell donations)”
Is that $20K USD comparable to GWWC’s headline figure of $100K USD per 10% pledge, or some other headline metric?
I note two interesting datapoints versus GWWC’s figures:
16 year lifespan vs GWWC’s 35.1 ← Less than half of GWWC’s lifespan?
35% counterfactuality adjustment versus GWWC’s 33% ← Only +2% uplift versus the Western context?
Not sure how the above parses with this paragraph: “On the positive side, Asian pledgers are counterfactually less likely to do effective giving, and give for a greater number of years.”
Hi Lorenzo,
(1) The 100k figure from GWWC is unadjusted; once you apply the per annum discounts, GWWC estimates a pledge to be worth USD 15k. So CEARCH’s estimate is higher, but not by much.
(2) Similarly, GWWC’s 35.1 is unadjusted; in comparison, when we report a 16 year giving lifespan, that adjusting for various temporal discounts (e.g. attrition amongst pledgers).
(3) The 0.35 counterfactual adjustment (and all the estimates from that bulletpoint list) are for the global average / predominantly western pledger. The Asia-specific estimates are different; we don’t go into detail here, but we expect the counterfactual coefficient for Asian pledgers to be 0.62, or almost twice as much.
Hope that’s helpful.
Helpful indeed, and thanks for the spreadsheet!