Distrust complicated stories that don’t have much simpler versions that also make sense, unless they’re pinned down very precisely by the evidence. When two sides of a yes-no question both complain the other side is committing this sin, you now have a serious challenge to your epistemology and you may need to sit down and think about it.
Distrust complicated designs unless you can calculate very precisely how they’ll work or they’ve been validated by a lot of testing on exactly the same problem distribution you’re drawing from.
Mostly, I think EAs are beating themselves up too much about FTX; but separately among the few problems that I think EA actually does have, is producing really lengthy writeups of things, that don’t simplify well and don’t come with tldrs, a la the incentives in the academic paper factory; and that life wisdom that produces distrust of complicated things that don’t simplify well, is produced in part by watching complicated things like FTX implode, and drawing a lesson of (bounded defeasible) complexity-distrust from that.
Okay, fine, a couple of caveats:
Distrust complicated stories that don’t have much simpler versions that also make sense, unless they’re pinned down very precisely by the evidence. When two sides of a yes-no question both complain the other side is committing this sin, you now have a serious challenge to your epistemology and you may need to sit down and think about it.
Distrust complicated designs unless you can calculate very precisely how they’ll work or they’ve been validated by a lot of testing on exactly the same problem distribution you’re drawing from.
What are you even talking about?
Mostly, I think EAs are beating themselves up too much about FTX; but separately among the few problems that I think EA actually does have, is producing really lengthy writeups of things, that don’t simplify well and don’t come with tldrs, a la the incentives in the academic paper factory; and that life wisdom that produces distrust of complicated things that don’t simplify well, is produced in part by watching complicated things like FTX implode, and drawing a lesson of (bounded defeasible) complexity-distrust from that.
This seems like a good summary of what you’re saying.
That just says SBF doesn’t like to read books and then it calls him an idiot for that?