‘Increased government power is closely linked with authoritarianism.’ Is this really true? Authoritarianism seems concentrated in poor countries with low state capacity to me, with some exceptions like China (not that rich yet, but definitely high state capacity).
Good point. I agree that authoritarian govts can have low state capacity, but I’m claiming that the states with the most control are likely to be authoritarian.
Governments that have tried to increase fertility so far have hardly been able to move the dial. To get back to replacement-level fertility they either need more control or better methods, and many high-control societies we have seen have been authoritarian: the USSR, Mao’s China, North Korea. There are probably counterexamples (Norway?) but there may be a limit on how much the government of a “free” society can do: government spending power increases in line with individual wealth, making it difficult for governments to increase their power to influence reproductive decisions.
Yeah, I think I agree that going really hard to increase fertility would likely require bad authoritarianism, even beyond the authoritarianism arguably inherent in trying to do this. (Or at least, I weekly guess that there is an >50% chance of this.) I was probably mostly being pedantic.
I suppose it depends how you define “increased government power”. If it is the power to provide healthcare and education for all your citizens, then no. If it is the power/ability to crush your political adversaries and send whoever you want to jail, then yes.
‘Increased government power is closely linked with authoritarianism.’ Is this really true? Authoritarianism seems concentrated in poor countries with low state capacity to me, with some exceptions like China (not that rich yet, but definitely high state capacity).
Good point. I agree that authoritarian govts can have low state capacity, but I’m claiming that the states with the most control are likely to be authoritarian.
Governments that have tried to increase fertility so far have hardly been able to move the dial. To get back to replacement-level fertility they either need more control or better methods, and many high-control societies we have seen have been authoritarian: the USSR, Mao’s China, North Korea. There are probably counterexamples (Norway?) but there may be a limit on how much the government of a “free” society can do: government spending power increases in line with individual wealth, making it difficult for governments to increase their power to influence reproductive decisions.
Yeah, I think I agree that going really hard to increase fertility would likely require bad authoritarianism, even beyond the authoritarianism arguably inherent in trying to do this. (Or at least, I weekly guess that there is an >50% chance of this.) I was probably mostly being pedantic.
I suppose it depends how you define “increased government power”. If it is the power to provide healthcare and education for all your citizens, then no. If it is the power/ability to crush your political adversaries and send whoever you want to jail, then yes.