I expect the causal effect to be pretty weak—if some light drinkers become nondrinkers, I guess that would lead to some reduction in the amount of heavy drinking, but not very much.
There are larger social influences from “the 5 closest people in your life [being] heavy drinkers” or from social rituals that actively pressure people into heavy drinking, but if the recommendation is for light drinkers to become nondrinkers that doesn’t directly touch either of those causal pathways.
This! I think an important way this posts’ recommendation can backfire is if non-drinkers become like vegans: socially isolated from drinkers, judgmental of drinkers.. this will likely be counterproductive and knowing human nature, I think people are at significant risk of becoming socially isolated from drinkers if they quit.
My guess is that the signaling value of 2 people halving their drinking is higher than the signaling value of 1 person quitting
I expect the causal effect to be pretty weak—if some light drinkers become nondrinkers, I guess that would lead to some reduction in the amount of heavy drinking, but not very much.
There are larger social influences from “the 5 closest people in your life [being] heavy drinkers” or from social rituals that actively pressure people into heavy drinking, but if the recommendation is for light drinkers to become nondrinkers that doesn’t directly touch either of those causal pathways.
This! I think an important way this posts’ recommendation can backfire is if non-drinkers become like vegans: socially isolated from drinkers, judgmental of drinkers.. this will likely be counterproductive and knowing human nature, I think people are at significant risk of becoming socially isolated from drinkers if they quit.
My guess is that the signaling value of 2 people halving their drinking is higher than the signaling value of 1 person quitting