Prof Tetlock on predicting catastrophe, keeping your politics secret, and when experts know more than you (Podcast − 1 hour 30 mins.)
Policy Debates Should Not Appear One-Sided (5 mins.)
Forecasting and predictions
Predicting what intervention will produce a positive impact using only expert consensus or deductive reasoning can be hard. Prediction markets and forecasting tournaments pose a potential solution. (Video − 1 hour)
Books on forecasting, e.g. How to Measure Anything or Business Forecasting
Increasing the Accuracy of Our Judgments: More to explore
Forecasting and political judgment
Prof Tetlock on predicting catastrophe, keeping your politics secret, and when experts know more than you (Podcast − 1 hour 30 mins.)
Policy Debates Should Not Appear One-Sided (5 mins.)
Forecasting and predictions
Predicting what intervention will produce a positive impact using only expert consensus or deductive reasoning can be hard. Prediction markets and forecasting tournaments pose a potential solution. (Video − 1 hour)
Books on forecasting, e.g. How to Measure Anything or Business Forecasting