On “cold computing”: to clarify, the piece I linked to was not about aestivation / waiting. It was about using “cold computing” right away.
The comment from gwern lists some reasons that may speak against “cold computing” (in general) as playing a significant role in answering the Fermi question, but again, a question is how decisive those reasons are. Even if such reasons should lead us to think that “cold computing” plays no significant role with 95 percent confidence, it still seems worth avoiding the mistake of belief digitization: simply collapsing the complementary 5 percent down to 0.
In any case, the point about “cold computing” was merely a disjunctive possibility; the broader point about observer prevalence being unclear in ‘grabby vs. quiet expansionist scenarios that include sims’ does not rest on that particular possibility.
On simulations: I think it can make sense to set the simulation argument aside, at least provisionally, for a couple of reasons:
The hypothesis that ancestor simulations (e.g. exact copies of your current conscious experience) are impossible to create seems like a plausible hypothesis that is worth exploring in its own right. (One can think that it is worth exploring even if one believes that faithful ancestor simulations are most likely possible.)
Even if we grant that ancestor simulations are possible and trivially feasible, it still makes sense to explore the non-sim (or pre-sim) case, since that would presumably apply to the original simulators (if we assume an ancestor simulation picture in which our world at least roughly matches the original simulators’ world). After all, if the anthropic argument holds for the OG simulators, then it would also hold for their ancestor simulations, assuming that those simulations really are ancestor simulations (somewhat analogously to a proof by induction). In this way, the ‘non-sim case’ seemingly has significant implications for what kind of simulation one should expect to be in (at least given the preceding assumptions).
I see. I glossed it as the variant I considered to be more relevant to the firmi question, but on reflection I’m not totally sure the aestivation hypothesis is all that relevant to the firmi question either… (I expect that there is visible activity a civ could do prior to the cooling of the universe to either prepare for it or accelerate it).
I don’t think the point of running them is to create exact copies, usually it would be to develop statistics about the possible outcomes, or to watch histories like your own. The distribution of outcomes for a bunch of fictional but era-appropriate generated humans may end up being roughly the same as the distribution of outcomes for the same exact population but with random perturbations along the way.
On “cold computing”: to clarify, the piece I linked to was not about aestivation / waiting. It was about using “cold computing” right away.
The comment from gwern lists some reasons that may speak against “cold computing” (in general) as playing a significant role in answering the Fermi question, but again, a question is how decisive those reasons are. Even if such reasons should lead us to think that “cold computing” plays no significant role with 95 percent confidence, it still seems worth avoiding the mistake of belief digitization: simply collapsing the complementary 5 percent down to 0.
In any case, the point about “cold computing” was merely a disjunctive possibility; the broader point about observer prevalence being unclear in ‘grabby vs. quiet expansionist scenarios that include sims’ does not rest on that particular possibility.
On simulations: I think it can make sense to set the simulation argument aside, at least provisionally, for a couple of reasons:
The hypothesis that ancestor simulations (e.g. exact copies of your current conscious experience) are impossible to create seems like a plausible hypothesis that is worth exploring in its own right. (One can think that it is worth exploring even if one believes that faithful ancestor simulations are most likely possible.)
Even if we grant that ancestor simulations are possible and trivially feasible, it still makes sense to explore the non-sim (or pre-sim) case, since that would presumably apply to the original simulators (if we assume an ancestor simulation picture in which our world at least roughly matches the original simulators’ world). After all, if the anthropic argument holds for the OG simulators, then it would also hold for their ancestor simulations, assuming that those simulations really are ancestor simulations (somewhat analogously to a proof by induction). In this way, the ‘non-sim case’ seemingly has significant implications for what kind of simulation one should expect to be in (at least given the preceding assumptions).
I see. I glossed it as the variant I considered to be more relevant to the firmi question, but on reflection I’m not totally sure the aestivation hypothesis is all that relevant to the firmi question either… (I expect that there is visible activity a civ could do prior to the cooling of the universe to either prepare for it or accelerate it).
I don’t think the point of running them is to create exact copies, usually it would be to develop statistics about the possible outcomes, or to watch histories like your own. The distribution of outcomes for a bunch of fictional but era-appropriate generated humans may end up being roughly the same as the distribution of outcomes for the same exact population but with random perturbations along the way.
Yeah.