Just to clarify on the orbital debris problem: it’s not just the risk of the ISS specifically hitting things on the way down (which is non-zero but at the same time not that likely: the ISS is too big to overlook and will move in a reasonably predictable manner so things will generally adjust their orbits in advance to move out the way, and most of them have higher orbits anyway). It’s also that when operators of thousands of other satellites[1]- from Starlink to university cubesats—are being advised/required to have specific end-of-life deorbiting strategies to avoid creating more orbital debris, all of which cost them money in terms of additional man hours and launch mass, and lots of research dollars are being spent on addressing the problem of orbital debris, the world’s major space agencies can hardly state their end of life strategy for the ISS is as long as everyone else gets out the way and then when it breaks apart in the upper atmosphere the pieces land somewhere like Australia or the sea it probably won’t do any real harm. It’s really bad politics to demand everyone else is a responsible citizen whilst shrugging your shoulders about the fate of your flagship. And nearly all the alternatives—especially those discussed in the white paper—would cost more.
And yes, in the scope of the operations of the ISS $843m isn’t even that big a number, which I realise may seem obscene in a country where that sum of money would buy the entire population a couple of malaria nets
(FWIW I still think you can [i] make a good case that the project is premature, the wrong approach or poor value for money and [ii] make a good case that SpaceX has done unusually well in turning pork-barrel projects into useful, value-for-money services and may do so again despite the project being premature, the wrong approach and/or poor value for money)
Just to clarify on the orbital debris problem: it’s not just the risk of the ISS specifically hitting things on the way down (which is non-zero but at the same time not that likely: the ISS is too big to overlook and will move in a reasonably predictable manner so things will generally adjust their orbits in advance to move out the way, and most of them have higher orbits anyway). It’s also that when operators of thousands of other satellites[1]- from Starlink to university cubesats—are being advised/required to have specific end-of-life deorbiting strategies to avoid creating more orbital debris, all of which cost them money in terms of additional man hours and launch mass, and lots of research dollars are being spent on addressing the problem of orbital debris, the world’s major space agencies can hardly state their end of life strategy for the ISS is as long as everyone else gets out the way and then when it breaks apart in the upper atmosphere the pieces land somewhere like Australia or the sea it probably won’t do any real harm. It’s really bad politics to demand everyone else is a responsible citizen whilst shrugging your shoulders about the fate of your flagship. And nearly all the alternatives—especially those discussed in the white paper—would cost more.
And yes, in the scope of the operations of the ISS $843m isn’t even that big a number, which I realise may seem obscene in a country where that sum of money would buy the entire population a couple of malaria nets
(FWIW I still think you can [i] make a good case that the project is premature, the wrong approach or poor value for money and [ii] make a good case that SpaceX has done unusually well in turning pork-barrel projects into useful, value-for-money services and may do so again despite the project being premature, the wrong approach and/or poor value for money)
most of which were launched in the past few years, which is why history isn’t a reliable guide...