My best guess is that most EAs have never heard of this argument, and that the few who have heard of it think that it isn’t accurate. It conflicts with their informal impressions/anecdotes, and it also conflicts with what they’ve learned about the world and society changing during the past few years.
If I did think it was accurate and really believed that human intelligence was getting worse over time, here are some thoughts that would probably come along with that:
Does average/mean intelligence even make sense?
Maybe we should do something about public schooling?
Anything relating to restricting dumb people from having babies feels pretty unpalatable to me, so even if it was completely convinced that was the right choice, I’m not confident I would pursue it. I’m willing to accept sub-optimal results along some metric in exchange for having rights; I don’t want to naively optimize.
We probably shouldn’t look at a trend of a decade or two and assume that it will continue in a linear fashion. (relevant XKCD)
People were on average dumber 50 years ago (and 100, and 500), and human civilization still managed to survive, thrive, and develop. So maybe it would just be a yo-yo effect over the course of a couple centuries, and humans get smarter, then dumber, then smarter again, repeatedly? I can’t say this with any confidence, but it does seem accurate that if the human average went down by 5 IQ points over the next few decades, it wouldn’t cause civilization to collapse.
Maybe this is somewhat similar to poor people having lots of kids, and as they get wealthier they have fewer kids? So maybe as people get more education they have fewer children also? So we should make sure that kindergarten and elementary schools are good quality.
My best guess is that most EAs have never heard of this argument, and that the few who have heard of it think that it isn’t accurate. It conflicts with their informal impressions/anecdotes, and it also conflicts with what they’ve learned about the world and society changing during the past few years.
If I did think it was accurate and really believed that human intelligence was getting worse over time, here are some thoughts that would probably come along with that:
Does average/mean intelligence even make sense?
Maybe we should do something about public schooling?
Anything relating to restricting dumb people from having babies feels pretty unpalatable to me, so even if it was completely convinced that was the right choice, I’m not confident I would pursue it. I’m willing to accept sub-optimal results along some metric in exchange for having rights; I don’t want to naively optimize.
We probably shouldn’t look at a trend of a decade or two and assume that it will continue in a linear fashion. (relevant XKCD)
People were on average dumber 50 years ago (and 100, and 500), and human civilization still managed to survive, thrive, and develop. So maybe it would just be a yo-yo effect over the course of a couple centuries, and humans get smarter, then dumber, then smarter again, repeatedly? I can’t say this with any confidence, but it does seem accurate that if the human average went down by 5 IQ points over the next few decades, it wouldn’t cause civilization to collapse.
Maybe this is somewhat similar to poor people having lots of kids, and as they get wealthier they have fewer kids? So maybe as people get more education they have fewer children also? So we should make sure that kindergarten and elementary schools are good quality.