More reasons for cautious interpretations:Manifold:* ’mana is purely a play-money and not exchangeable for sweepcash, money, or any other goods and items’Polymarket:* orderbook’s actually 2.5% which the interface rounds up to 3%* Polymarket offers 4% variable interest on that (Kalshi went from 4.05% to 3.50% this year)Metaculus:* 500 deaths is closer to previous US standoffs than the US Civil War* Only question of those >3% as of writing only has 33 forecasters* All the histograms have odd tails (somewhat dampened by Metaculus reporting medians):
There’s advantages to play money, such as that players don’t care as much about the time value of money (it’s also much easier to start and resolve markets, leading to many more markets)
easier to start and resolve markets, leading to many more markets
leads to lower signal-to-noise ratioand heeding time-value still leads to more (play) capital /​ pricing power
More reasons for cautious interpretations:
Manifold:
* ’mana is purely a play-money and not exchangeable for sweepcash, money, or any other goods and items’
Polymarket:
* orderbook’s actually 2.5% which the interface rounds up to 3%
* Polymarket offers 4% variable interest on that (Kalshi went from 4.05% to 3.50% this year)
Metaculus:
* 500 deaths is closer to previous US standoffs than the US Civil War
* Only question of those >3% as of writing only has 33 forecasters
* All the histograms have odd tails (somewhat dampened by Metaculus reporting medians):
There’s advantages to play money, such as that players don’t care as much about the time value of money (it’s also much easier to start and resolve markets, leading to many more markets)
leads to lower signal-to-noise ratio
and heeding time-value still leads to more (play) capital /​ pricing power