I don’t think the 80k estimate on climate change is based on a thorough investigation of the science. I just don’t see how from the impacts estimated in the next 100 years, extreme climate change could be thought to be a greater than 0.1% ex risk. The heat stress of >4 degrees would be bad but if things started going that badly, I think the world would take action. In a few decades it will be much cheaper to abate GHGs and everyone will have an interest in doing so
I generally agree. The question is whether we should call something an X-risk by the impact if it happens alone or by the impact*probability. If the latter, and if comets are an X-risk, then we should call extreme climate change (and definitely nuclear war) an X-risk.
I see, yes good point.