I don’t think that most donors who are looking at getting matching donations are particularly interested in thinking about / worried about counterfactual donations—but if they are, and bother to do minimal reading, the situation is very clear. (Note that they are doing counterfactual donation direction, since otherwise the money will not necessarily go to the organization they picked, which is what, in my experience, most non-EA people think they are doing when getting matched donations.)
I don’t think that most donors who are looking at getting matching donations are particularly interested in thinking about / worried about counterfactual donations—but if they are, and bother to do minimal reading, the situation is very clear.
(Note that they are doing counterfactual donation direction, since otherwise the money will not necessarily go to the organization they picked, which is what, in my experience, most non-EA people think they are doing when getting matched donations.)