Some other relevant factors seem likely to be: [...] whether they support âweirderâ or more mainstream issues.
Do you have in mind that people who support more mainstream issuesâlike climate change or global health and development, rather than AI safetyâare more likely to leave EA because they have more alternative options of people to talk to? Or the same prediction, but because of something else, like a focus on more distinctly EA issues being evidence of a âmore distinctly EA mindsetâ?
Or do you have in mind that people who support issues that are perceived as âweirderâ within EAâlike anti-ageing or psychedelics researchâare more likely to leave EA?
My impression is that the community is better managed than in the early days. Itâs also more respected (e.g. AI safety is a lot less weird than in the past) and more professionalised, which should reduce drop out rates.
The comment on AI safety having become less weird prompted the following thought: Perhaps a (weak) argument that drop-out rates will increase in future is that:
Various EA focuses may become more mainstream (either because of EAâs success or for other reasons)
If that happens, EAs may be more likely to drift out of EA, as thereâs no longer as much gained by them being in EA specifically (since there are now more non-EA people for them to talk to, collaborate with, work for, etc.)
But perhaps 1 and/âor 2 are quite unlikely. Or perhaps we shouldnât call that âdrop -outâ exactly, since the people would still be focused on issues we consider important (just not âunder an EA bannerâ).
Do you have in mind that people who support more mainstream issuesâlike climate change or global health and development, rather than AI safetyâare more likely to leave EA because they have more alternative options of people to talk to? Or the same prediction, but because of something else, like a focus on more distinctly EA issues being evidence of a âmore distinctly EA mindsetâ?
Or do you have in mind that people who support issues that are perceived as âweirderâ within EAâlike anti-ageing or psychedelics researchâare more likely to leave EA?
The comment on AI safety having become less weird prompted the following thought: Perhaps a (weak) argument that drop-out rates will increase in future is that:
Various EA focuses may become more mainstream (either because of EAâs success or for other reasons)
If that happens, EAs may be more likely to drift out of EA, as thereâs no longer as much gained by them being in EA specifically (since there are now more non-EA people for them to talk to, collaborate with, work for, etc.)
But perhaps 1 and/âor 2 are quite unlikely. Or perhaps we shouldnât call that âdrop -outâ exactly, since the people would still be focused on issues we consider important (just not âunder an EA bannerâ).