Some other relevant factors seem likely to be: [...] whether they support ‘weirder’ or more mainstream issues.
Do you have in mind that people who support more mainstream issues—like climate change or global health and development, rather than AI safety—are more likely to leave EA because they have more alternative options of people to talk to? Or the same prediction, but because of something else, like a focus on more distinctly EA issues being evidence of a “more distinctly EA mindset”?
Or do you have in mind that people who support issues that are perceived as “weirder” within EA—like anti-ageing or psychedelics research—are more likely to leave EA?
My impression is that the community is better managed than in the early days. It’s also more respected (e.g. AI safety is a lot less weird than in the past) and more professionalised, which should reduce drop out rates.
The comment on AI safety having become less weird prompted the following thought: Perhaps a (weak) argument that drop-out rates will increase in future is that:
Various EA focuses may become more mainstream (either because of EA’s success or for other reasons)
If that happens, EAs may be more likely to drift out of EA, as there’s no longer as much gained by them being in EA specifically (since there are now more non-EA people for them to talk to, collaborate with, work for, etc.)
But perhaps 1 and/or 2 are quite unlikely. Or perhaps we shouldn’t call that “drop -out” exactly, since the people would still be focused on issues we consider important (just not “under an EA banner”).
Do you have in mind that people who support more mainstream issues—like climate change or global health and development, rather than AI safety—are more likely to leave EA because they have more alternative options of people to talk to? Or the same prediction, but because of something else, like a focus on more distinctly EA issues being evidence of a “more distinctly EA mindset”?
Or do you have in mind that people who support issues that are perceived as “weirder” within EA—like anti-ageing or psychedelics research—are more likely to leave EA?
The comment on AI safety having become less weird prompted the following thought: Perhaps a (weak) argument that drop-out rates will increase in future is that:
Various EA focuses may become more mainstream (either because of EA’s success or for other reasons)
If that happens, EAs may be more likely to drift out of EA, as there’s no longer as much gained by them being in EA specifically (since there are now more non-EA people for them to talk to, collaborate with, work for, etc.)
But perhaps 1 and/or 2 are quite unlikely. Or perhaps we shouldn’t call that “drop -out” exactly, since the people would still be focused on issues we consider important (just not “under an EA banner”).