I don’t mean to derail the thread, but one question I’d have, at some point, is to get some idea of what you might feel comfortable with, regards to public forecasting of finances.
I generally stay away from forecasts around individuals. However, in our (unusual) situation, a huge amount of the EA landscape is now highly dependent on your net worth over time.
By chance, would you be okay or have reservations with any of the following being publicly forecasted? Is there anything you might actively be interested in being forecasted?
1. Total funding spent by Open Philanthropy over time. 2. Major shifts in spending between cause areas by Open Philanthropy / Good Ventures, over time. 3. Your public net worth over time.
I could imagine some people who would want this to happen anyway (i.e., would just be interested in the results), and others who really prefer privacy (also totally fine).
On the extreme end there are scandal markets. My guess is that they would show very low probabilities of any scandal around you, but these markets are also very new+experimental, and I realize they make lots of people feel kind of icky. (I’d also flag that if it would help, I’d be happy to publicly host any of these sorts of forecasts for myself/QURI, for a while, first.)
(Not urgent, feel free to ignore)
I don’t mean to derail the thread, but one question I’d have, at some point, is to get some idea of what you might feel comfortable with, regards to public forecasting of finances.
I generally stay away from forecasts around individuals. However, in our (unusual) situation, a huge amount of the EA landscape is now highly dependent on your net worth over time.
By chance, would you be okay or have reservations with any of the following being publicly forecasted? Is there anything you might actively be interested in being forecasted?
1. Total funding spent by Open Philanthropy over time.
2. Major shifts in spending between cause areas by Open Philanthropy / Good Ventures, over time.
3. Your public net worth over time.
I could imagine some people who would want this to happen anyway (i.e., would just be interested in the results), and others who really prefer privacy (also totally fine).
On the extreme end there are scandal markets. My guess is that they would show very low probabilities of any scandal around you, but these markets are also very new+experimental, and I realize they make lots of people feel kind of icky. (I’d also flag that if it would help, I’d be happy to publicly host any of these sorts of forecasts for myself/QURI, for a while, first.)