I disagree with your calculation, I independently made the same calculation below (before seeing yours), and mine comes out with $40,000, which is less than 3x the $17,400, and my confidence interval certainly would include $17,400. (It first came out with $10,000, but your calculation made me realize that I neglected an important factor.)
In addition, it seems like a big assumption that you could improve voting skill by 0.1% with a “tiny amount of effort”, I disagree pretty strongly there (again, more details in the other comment thread).
“It basically assumes that all you’re doing is appropriating federal dollars to GiveDirectly or something closely equivalent; there are probably lots of cleverer options.”
Say what? If I’m understanding you right, it would be better to donate to the US government than to donate to GiveDirectly?
I disagree with your calculation, I independently made the same calculation below (before seeing yours), and mine comes out with $40,000, which is less than 3x the $17,400, and my confidence interval certainly would include $17,400. (It first came out with $10,000, but your calculation made me realize that I neglected an important factor.)
In addition, it seems like a big assumption that you could improve voting skill by 0.1% with a “tiny amount of effort”, I disagree pretty strongly there (again, more details in the other comment thread).
“It basically assumes that all you’re doing is appropriating federal dollars to GiveDirectly or something closely equivalent; there are probably lots of cleverer options.”
Say what? If I’m understanding you right, it would be better to donate to the US government than to donate to GiveDirectly?