Reading the estimate in a different thread, it turns out I forgot one factor—the laws passed by Congressmen can last decades into the future, and so have an impact there. This will in general tend to cancel out the effect where “most of the budget is already committed and can’t be changed”, so I should undo that, which was a multiplier of 4x, getting you to an estimate of $40,000, which is still at the point where my uncertainty includes $17,400. So like maybe 70% belief that 0.1% improvement in voting skill is better than $17,400 donated to the global poor.
I still stand by my second claim that a “tiny amount of effort” would definitely not increase voting skill by 0.1%.
Reading the estimate in a different thread, it turns out I forgot one factor—the laws passed by Congressmen can last decades into the future, and so have an impact there. This will in general tend to cancel out the effect where “most of the budget is already committed and can’t be changed”, so I should undo that, which was a multiplier of 4x, getting you to an estimate of $40,000, which is still at the point where my uncertainty includes $17,400. So like maybe 70% belief that 0.1% improvement in voting skill is better than $17,400 donated to the global poor.
I still stand by my second claim that a “tiny amount of effort” would definitely not increase voting skill by 0.1%.