I remember wondering the same a few years ago, and I came to the opposite conclusion. I think the biggest differences in my reasoning were:
I think in practice it takes much more than 30 minutes on average to write a will, even more so if it’s a significant amount of wealth (like $100k)
I think the annualized chance of death for someone worth $100k at 25 is significantly lower than the population average
People with no risk factors (e.g. heart disease, cancer) have a significantly lower chance of death, and if someone discovers a risk factor they can think about a will after that discovery
I remember wondering the same a few years ago, and I came to the opposite conclusion. I think the biggest differences in my reasoning were:
I think in practice it takes much more than 30 minutes on average to write a will, even more so if it’s a significant amount of wealth (like $100k)
I think the annualized chance of death for someone worth $100k at 25 is significantly lower than the population average
People with no risk factors (e.g. heart disease, cancer) have a significantly lower chance of death, and if someone discovers a risk factor they can think about a will after that discovery
Also quickly noting that you’re using the annualized chance of death for males in the US, but a significant percentage of EA Forum readers are women, so have less than half the mortality rate between 15 and 37, and/​or live in countries with a much lower youth mortality risk (e.g.in the UK it’s 0.6 per 1,000 25 y/​o males, in Italy 0.4, in the Netherlands 0.4 if I’m interpreting this correctly, I expect Germany and other european countries to be similar, Canada 0.97, Australia 0.6)